宏观机制推演

Fed funds rate 2.50%

CPI inflation

2.1%

USD strength

Stable

10Y Treasury yield

3.8%

GDP growth signal

+2.4%

Stock market Neutral

Equity valuations reflect discount rate expectations. Higher Fed rate compresses P/E multiples.

S&P 500 directionSideways

Earnings pressureModerate

Bond market Neutral

Bond prices move inversely to yields. Fed hikes push existing bond prices down as new issuances offer higher coupons.

Price movementFlat

Flight to safetyLow

Commodities Neutral

Oil, gold, wheat respond to dollar strength and supply disruptions. War is the primary shock driver here.

Oil (WTI)$78

Gold$2,050

Money market funds Neutral

Short-term yield vehicles track the Fed rate closely. Higher rates make money markets more attractive vs equities.

MMF yield2.4%

InflowsModerate

War / crisis inflation transmission chain

War breaks out → Oil supply shock → Energy costs spike → Transport + food costs rise → CPI inflation surges → Fed forced to hike → Stocks + bonds sell off → Gold + cash surge

Inflation pressure 2.1%

2.1%

Stocks Bonds Commodities Money market Crisis pressure